Wednesday 26 June 2013

3pm update - melt into the close?

The market is broadly still climbing, bears need a close <sp'1595, and that doesn't look likely now. Indeed, with today's QE, the bulls might be able to quietly melt this into the close, 1608/10 would be the target. VIX so far showing no real power, and is close to the opening low.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

A bit of a tiresome day for those on the short side. A hint of weakness in mid-morning, but then...back to slow motion melt.

Is it the QE ? Or merely the short term bounce?
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Regardless, I'd be surprised if we close <1600.

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*I will hold short overnight, and right now, probably into the Friday close..and across the weekend.


UPDATE 3.29pm.. well, we've effectively tested the 50% fib retrace from the 1654 high.

Only issue now is whether 1620s...before 1530s.


3.35pm.. Note the trans/R2K have NOT  yet broken the morning high, equivilent to sp'1603. Kinda interesting.

3.45pm.. R2K looking like intra-day double top....and its weak right now - Transports is matching it.