Thursday 27 June 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed higher, with the sp +0.96% @ 1603. We're now a good 43pts above the Monday low, but this is probably a mere 'bounce'. Weekly charts still suggest further downside, and the primary target remains the lower weekly bollinger, currently @ 1497.


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Summary

So, it was another day for the bulls, and the bounce is now almost 3 days in duration. That is pretty considerable, and almost matches the decline in terms of time.

Best guess remains, this is merely a bounce, and that further downside is due.

For Thursday, bears have some very clear break/snap levels.

VIX 18s, with sp'1595, although by the end of tomorrow, the bulls will need to have ramped the indexes to around 1610 - just to hold within the current up channel.
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*I am heavy short, and effectively have an exit target of sp'1550 (minimum), but possibly 1530s within the next 2-3 trading days. I'm trying to be patient with this very large short-side trade.

As at next week, the weekly target will be around 1510. It won't be easy to hit, but it'd make for a very nice 'go heavy long' level.

As ever...one day at a time.
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a little more later...