Friday 28 June 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes climbed for a third day, with the sp +0.6% @ 1613. The R2K was much stronger, +1.7% @ 979. Near term trend is certainly to the upside, but bulls will need a weekly close in the sp'1620s to confirm that the 1530s are no longer on the agenda for early July.


sp'daily5



R2K



Trans


Summary

So, a third day higher, and the bulls are back. The recent scare that the Fed might reduce the monthly QE of $85bn is again fading. After all, that's all settled again, yes?

How we close tomorrow - which also happens to be the end of Q2, will be important. Certainly, there is the issue of 'window dressing', and that most definately favours the bulls.


SP'1700s within a week or two?

The market has seen a rather disturbing straight up 60pt ramp in just 3 trading days. The really scary thing is at this rate, we'll be breaking new historic highs by the end of next week. Considering the last four years of mainstream delusion and market manipulation via QE, you'd have to at least consider sp'1700s as a viable scenario within 3-5 trading days.

Personally, I still think we cycle another wave lower, hence I'm still holding short, but if we do close tomorrow in the 1620s, I'll seriously consider bailing.
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a little more later...