sp'weekly'7 - the high is in @ 1687
sp'weekly'8 - one further high, then down
Summary
Today was a good day in the bunker. The irony is that despite the market having a rather significant down day, I actually made money on the long side. How crazy is that for a self-proclaimed 'permabear' ? Tis become an ever more twisted world.
I still favour the second scenario/chart. Obviously, the key level is now sp'1598. Any close under that, and I will revert to trading the first chart/scenario...on the short side.
I should note, I have a primary target zone of sp'1550/30 on weekly'7, but at the same time, the lower weekly bollinger would be the primary price target. The latter is a rising target though, and will be around sp'1550 by mid July.
In all recent multi-week down cycles, the lower weekly bollinger band has been hit on most indexes, and that is why I keep highlighting it.
Looking ahead
There is the usual EIA (oil) report at 10.30am, but perhaps more interestingly there is the US treasury budget. Market is seeking a monthly deficit of $110bn, clearly the US fiscal position is stable...and...strong. There is no significant QE-pomo this Wednesday.
In terms of Wednesday trading, I will be looking for an index and/or Oil long. However, it greatly depends on how we open and trade in the first 30 mins. If bulls can't hold the 1620s, then a test of the recent 1598 low looks likely, and if that's the case, I don't think it'll hold.
If the market opens flat...or a touch lower, I'll look to go long, but like today, it will be dependent largely on the 'market mood'.
Goodnight from London