Tuesday 4 June 2013

Transports hold the 6200s

The bears managed only moderate follow through from last Friday, and it would seem the Transports has held an important line today. The weekly tranny chart is still broadly bullish for another few months. Primary upside target remains the low 7000s


Trans, weekly'3, rainbow



sp'daily3 - fib levels


Summary

The Transports came very close to breaking key support earlier today, but the daily close - a fall of just 0.03%, was a rather bullish sign.

First immediate upside target for the bulls should be the recent high in the mid 6500s. A weekly close (some time this month) >6600 will be VERY bullish, and a warning that the main market might see another 10% higher across the June-August period.

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Daily Fib' chart, extrapolating from 1622 to 1687, a 1.6x jump is offering sp'1728 or so within the next month or two. Even that might not be the high. Trans 7000s, almost certainly equates to sp'1750, perhaps the low 1800s.

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**Bonus chart, sp'15min


Something I am keeping in mind for tomorrow, perhaps we'll see a minor morning drop, 1635/25 - putting in an important 'marginally higher low', and then RAMP rest of Tuesday/early Wednesday - with ADP jobs data?


Looking ahead

There isn't much in the way of key data tomorrow, just intl.trade data, and the market never cares about that. Market will indeed be more focused on jobs data due Wed-Friday.

My plan? I am merely seeking to pick up another index (long) position, on the next 15min down cycle. If we open lower, I'll probably go long very early, probably 10-11am.

*I do think we'll get a 10% down cycle, just not yet. In the meantime, even a permabear can make some $ on the long side, yes?

Goodnight from London