Friday 16 August 2013

Volatility gains for a second week

Despite equity indexes closing the week with moderate declines, the VIX still slipped into the Friday close, settling -2.4% @ 14.37. Across the week though, the VIX gained for a second consecutive week, with net gains of 7.2%.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

Despite the market declining a little more:  sp -5pts, the VIX still cooled down..

First support looks to be the daily 10MA, that is @ 13.09, but is rising.

Arguably, VIX 11s look completely out of range for some 'weeks', and 12s will only be viable if the market can make a play into the sp'1690s again - which certainly won't be easy next week.


Two weeks does not make a trend..but its a start

For the equity 'doomer bears' out there, one of the most bearish aspects is that the VIX has actually managed to close with net gains for the second consecutive week. Sure, we're only in the low teens, but its a start..and 16/19s look viable within the next week or two.

Breaking into the VIX 20s though, that remains VERY difficult, and looks to only be briefly viable in the first half of September.
--

more later..on those weak indexes