Tuesday 10 September 2013

2pm update - market stuck in the low 1680s

The main indexes remain holding gains of around 0.6% or so. The sp'500 is stuck in the old gap-zone of 1680/85. Bears are looking pretty much powerless, yet even a close in the mid 1670s would do nothing to indicate the current 9 day rally is near an end.


sp'60min


Summary

A close in the 1670s would be 'something', but really, its turning out to be a dull day..again.

The rate of ascent since Friday is pretty disturbing At this rate, we'll be hitting new highs (>1709) by Friday.
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Meanwhile..in bond land..we're really not that far from a daily close, with a 10yr yield in the 3s.


Perhaps equity bears should be seeking a 10yr break into the low 3s...that should open 3.25/30s, which might be enough to trigger a few things.

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VIX is lower by around 0.9..in the upper 14s. Certainly, a move back into the 15s is viable late today, but there is simply no reason to expect anything much.


2.29pm... VIX looks floored on the hourly chart.


Yes, its still broadly in 'melt lower' mode, and arguably, bears need at least the low 16s until a clear trend change is apparent.

 2.35pm. For the day traders out there..its pretty simple into the close. Short, with a stop from sp'1684. Downside target is 1677/75, with VIX currently..trying to battle back upward.

Daily VIX chart looks pretty ugly though, offering downside to 13.50. Urghh