Monday 9 September 2013

3pm update - 1680s now look a given

The market is holding rather significant gains of around 1%, with the sp' in the low 1670s. A full gap fill in the 1680s now looks likely Tue/Wednesday. For the bears, the weekly charts are now looking real ugly. VIX is naturally melting lower, in a market of 'hey..its all fine again'.


sp'daily5


vix'daily3


Summary

So..the bull maniacs are seemingly going to manage a double gap fill in the sp'1680s..either tomorrow..or Wednesday.

For those holding short...another 1% 'tolerance'..after that...there would seem no point holding.
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I remain short the market, via VIX-long, and things are starting to get annoying, although nothing 'critical yet'.

The stuff of nightmares...

sp'weekly7


Green candle...and close to breaking above the 10MA.

Obviously, any daily close in the 1680s will be a massive problem. Other than some sort of VERY strong intra-day reversal Tue/Wed, its looking pretty bad for those in bear land.


3.22pm...Nasdaq Comp' breaks new highs...equivl' to sp'1710+


The Trans/R2K are ramping almost 1.5%..but not close to breaking new highs...yet.

I'm certainly still not watching any clown TV today, but I'm guessing they are in full bullish-hysteria mode. Hell, they don't even need to tout 'we're off the lows' today.


3.40pm.. sp'1670...well, regardless of how whether we close above or below 1670 it doesn't matter.

I'm simply resigned to 1680s. The ONLY issue now...whether its just a gap-fill..or the start of another twisted..and baseless ramp.

I'm still guessing..the recent 1627 low will taken out, but hell, if 1690s...it will be white flag time.