Friday 27 September 2013

Market set to begin another wave higher

The equity daily charts are offering rather clear bull flags. Market bulls merely need a Fri/Monday close back in the low sp'1700s, and that should open up much higher levels, as we move into October. If the market does not get spooked this autumn, there is no reason the rally won't continue into 2014.


sp'weekly4 - broader hyper-bullish outlook



sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook into spring 2014


Summary

I sure don't like posting such bullish charts. I wish I could believe we were on the threshold of a major autumnal decline. Yet...my best (least biased) guess - as best as a 'permabear' can be unbiased, is that we're going to rally into October.

I realise some good chartists out there are calling for a key cycle top in the 1740/60 zone, but I just don't see why the market would stop there. After all, there is the usual 'Santa/Christmas' rally, and then there will be the usual gains in the spring.

So long as no major 'issue' rears up in Oct/November, this market looks set to rally for at least another six months, at which point the market will comfortably be in the sp'2000s. I realise for many, that is a sickening thought, not least for those who truly understand the reality of the 'new world economy'.


Looking ahead

The week concludes with personal income/outlays, and consumer sentiment data. However, perhaps more important, we have another two Fed people talking, not least of which is Dudley..who can often be a market mover.

*there is heavy QE-pomo of around $5bn tomorrow...bears should really...beware!
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*I remain long from last Friday afternoon, am underwater, but reasonably confident of an exit in the 1720/30s. I doubt I will have the patience to hold for the 1740/50s.
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A few videos to wrap up the day...

First, Mr Permabull..who is looking for a daily bull flag to play out...as am I.




Second, Mr Biderman...whom (as usual) is bearish about the bigger macro-picture



Goodnight from London