Monday 30 September 2013

Volatility battling higher

With the main indexes closing lower, the VIX managed a moderately significant gain, closing +7.4%  @ 16.60 (opening spike high of 17.49) - the highest close in four weeks. Despite the trend, and the uncertainty about a US Govt' shutdown, VIX 20s look unlikely in the immediate term.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

The VIX was arguably the most interesting aspect of the market to watch today.

The opening hourly candle was a classic black-fail one, and indeed, that was a clear early warning that equities would eventually battle back higher into the afternoon.

Despite renewed equity weakness in the closing hour, the daily closing VIX candle was itself also a black-fail candle, and frankly, that should really concern those equity bears hoping for much lower levels across this week.

Considering the style of price action across the past few weeks..and months, I simply can't envision the VIX above the key 20 threshold in the near term.

On the flip side, equity bulls can not be confident until we see a few daily closes in the sp'1710/20s.

As ever....we'll know soon enough.
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more later..on the indexes