Friday 11 October 2013

Same Boehner, different day

For equity bears, the US political maniacs are always a serious wild card. With Boehner once again caving in, it would seem the debt ceiling can will be kicked into November. The only issue now is whether new index highs will be seen in the coming weeks..and then what...another debt ceiling kick?


sp'weekly'8


Dow, weekly


Summary

If we close flat or see more upside tomorrow, it would clarify that the recent weakness was indeed just another cruel tease to the bears.

The Dow weekly chart is still particularly weak, and I wouldn't be overly confident on the bullish side until we see a few daily closes in the 15700s.

Despite the gains today, the weekly indicators all remain very bearish, whether its the RSI, the MACD, or stochastic. I suppose we could reverse lower on Friday, but really, the hourly/daily charts argue against that bearish outlook.


Looking ahead

The only econ-data tomorrow is consumer sentiment, but I don't think Mr market will much care about that. The only thing that seems to matter is whether the can will get kicked forward another six weeks.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until next Tuesday.
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Avoiding the carnage

Having been whipsawed a few times in the past few weeks, yours truly at least managed to be well clear of today's nonsense. I am likely going to continue to largely leave the market alone for some weeks. I've an SLV (short) trade right now, that is working out okay, but I'll look to exit even that, ahead of the weekend.

I think most out there are burnt out on this nonsense. This market is up 20% on the year, and the QE just keeps on flowing. No doubt the politicians on capitol hill will continue to play their games in the weeks and months ahead. It is probably fair to say...their behaviour will never advance beyond 'petty'.

Goodnight from London