Monday, 28 January 2013

Volatility battling higher

Whilst the indexes saw mostly minor sideways chop, the VIX remained green across the day, making the fourth consecutive daily rise. The VIX closed +5.3% @ 13.57. The key target zone is the gap area 16-18, although it will be very difficult to see VIX 17/18, even if sp'1450s.




VIX action remains very moderate, but there IS a clear upward trend.

The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle went positive for the first time this year. In theory, there should be a good 2-3 days of further upside, but possibly Friday and early next week.

Regardless though of how many days there are in this up cycle, I do NOT see VIX capable of breaking 18. Indeed, I don't expect VIX 20s for some months to come.

*So, I am long VIX, but looking to exit somewhere between 16-18 later this week.

More later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

A pretty quiet day in market land. There really is a total lack of bearish momentum still. Its been almost a full month since we had a 1% day - the 'bloodbath' as Zerohedge infamously called it, which of course now seems a case of classic 'bearish hysteria'.

sp'60min4 - retracement levels


The fib' level chart I'll keep updating. I think its fair to keep a target somewhere in the 1450/40 zone, although the former will be difficult after this week - due to rising support/channel on the daily charts.

*A quiet day..hence....less of me. But then, that's perhaps a good thing.

I think the big price action will be this Wednesday-Friday.

More later on the VIX..and those Indexes

12pm update - VIX battling higher

Whilst the indexes see yet further minor choppy churn, the VIX is showing some very subtle, but important strength. On the rainbow chart, VIX has its first green candle of the year, the VIX 16/18 gap zone looks set to be filled sometime soon.




Certainly, its not a particularly bearish start to the week, but then, neither are the bulls ramping it into the sp'1520s. Market is exhausted, the only issue is can we retrace all the way down to the lower rising support in the 1450/40s.

AMZN remains weak, with earnings tomorrow.

Want to go long this stock, with a PE in the 3000s?

AAPL seeing a little spike, but it remains a 'broken stock'.
*will probably add some other bits and pieces in this post across the next few hours.

UPDATE 12.50pm... video on the VIX...from mr T.

back later

10am update - weakness ahead?

Good morning. Another week begins, and in theory at least, it should be the week Mr Market uses to finally see the start of a minor retracement - somewhere in the sp'1450/40 zone. VIX is moderately higher, but it still extremely low, and its long way up just to hit the 16s.




I think some rather significant action later this week, from Wednesday onward. So, lets see how today and tomorrow trade.

*Durable Goods Orders came in much better than market was expecting.

UPDATE 11am... VIX showing a little power, and for the first time this year, daily MACD cycle is positive.

A long way until the 16s though.

AMZN is a little weak, with earnings (or rather..lack of) tomorrow.