Sunday, 17 March 2013

8pm update - nothing significant yet

ES futures are suggesting the sp will open -15pts @ 1545 tomorrow. That's kinda interesting, but clearly nothing for the bears to get excited about. A floor around the 20 day MA of 1530 seems viable Mon/Tuesday..before a rally on FOMC day.

sp'daily5 - outlook


Best guess is we floor in the 1540/30 range tomorrow, before another wave higher - aided by 'calming talk' from the Fed that QE is here for some considerable time yet.

Those bears shorting into the declines tomorrow morning, it would not seem likely that is going to end well by the Wednesday close.

other bits..

USD 46bps, but its not able to hold the 83s yet.

Gold/Silver are still moderately higher, but the moves here aren't significant either.

Gold needs to clear the 1620s, and even then, key resistance is @ 1640. Thats going to be a tough level to break in the coming days.

Oil is down around 0.9%, but NatGas is continuing to ramp.

One final update this evening..probably at 10pm.

6pm update - Cyprus event rattles market

The Cyprus event has rattled the world markets, and overnight stock futures are starting to drop somewhat significantly. ES futures suggesting sp -15pts at the open..although figure will likely change a great deal in the next few hours.

sp'daily5 - outloo


My original outlook was for a drop of 20/30pts across Mon/Tuesday - forming blue IV, before a final blue V up across 2-3 days - probably coinciding with the FOMC.

I still think that outlook is viable, so long as we don't go much below 1530

Gold jumps $18 at the open necessary..across the evening.