Monday, 26 August 2013

Volatility jumps in the closing hour

The VIX held very minor gains for much of the day, but jumped in the closing hour after Syria war-talk spooked the US markets. The VIX closed +7.2% @ 14.99. The situation is now extremely marginal, but equity bears need to keep in mind the looming QEs of Tue/Wednesday.




Certainly, the closing hour made for a little bit of drama, after what had been a very dull and quiet day.

Both the hourly and daily cycle charts are offering further VIX upside for Tuesday, but really, the bears face the continued problem of QE. We've seen this play out a few hundred times over the past few years,and 95% of the time, the bulls will bring the market back to the upside.

So..all things considered, even if the market opens a little lower on Tuesday, I'm VERY inclined to still hold to the original outlook. Seeking a gap fill in the sp'1680s, before renewed downside to the lower weekly bollinger - currently 1564..and rising.
more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes generally closed moderately lower, with the sp -6pts @ 1656. Near term trend remains slightly to the upside, and with two big QEs across Tue/Wednesday, the bears face continued problems. VIX did close higher, but remains in the 14s.




Well, I do kinda like surprises, so..despite proclaiming 'quiet end to a quiet day', it was good to see the market get twitchy on war talk.

*I remain holding to the original outlook, seeking a bounce across Tue/Wed, to the sp'1675/85 area.

I do not expect the 1690s this week, and the 1709 remains a pretty good mid-term high.

the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

*ohh, and if you like the posts, and are a webmaster/blogger, add me to your links!

3pm update - quiet end to a quiet day

The main indexes are holding moderate gains. Importantly, the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are both higher by around 0.5% - equivalent to Dow +80pts. Bears should remain cautious ahead of two large QEs, and what remains a continued bounce from the sp'1639 low.



Bulls should merely be content with any close about the hourly 10MA of 1665. That looks pretty reasonable.

The only issue is whether the market can break into the mid 1670s tomorrow...I'm guessing yes.

Yet, I want a re-short in the 1680s....I remain in no hurry, during what is a subdued market.

*a red VIX close would complete what has been another pointless day for the bears.

3.15pm..hmm, a micro-snap lower. Kinda surprising, oh well, that'll wash out the day-trading bulls. Shame.

3.25pm..seems Mr Market is upset with Kerry...and now the Ruskies are going to get annoyed.

The 50day MA has been soft support.. sp'1650.

Kinda interesting end to the day after all ! trying to form a spike-floor.

I'm still not interested..not least ahead of the two big QEs.

As ever...'don't get lost in the noise'. Yes, the closing drop is interesting, but that only has most indexes -0.25%.

Bears have NO excuse to not be cautious ahead of tomorrow.

2pm update - micro down cycle

The market is cooling off a touch, but really, there is no reason to expect anything significant in the immediate term, not least with two large QEs across the next two days. Regardless of where we close, the sp'1680s still look set to be hit.



Little to add.

notable movers remain the hysteria stocks of FB, NFLX, TSLA, and GRPN

Coal miners still doing okay, +3-4%.

The R2K pretty strong..considering...

Equivalent to sp +8/9pts

1pm update - did we close yet?

Market remains very quiet, but as ever..that just means the algo-bots are more able to melt it higher. A close in the low sp'1670s remains very viable. Metals/Oil remain a touch weak, but really, it is a quiet day.



Despite the indexes higher again..we're still holding a blue candle on the 'rainbow' (Elder impulse) charts.

Baring a weekly close >1690, bears should be reasonably okay.

Best case, we hit 1680/85..but have a Friday close <1660.

*ohh, and yes, the lower weekly bol is now 1564....somewhat lower than I thought it would be to start the week.

12pm update - battling slowly higher

The smaller 15/60min cycles are looking overstretched, but there is very little downside pressure. Bears look powerless until later this week. VIX is back to flat, and the 13s look viable Tue/Wed. Metals and Oil are a touch weak.



There is little to say, on what could be the quietest trading day of the year.

Regardless of any minor down cycle this afternoon, the 1675/85 zone still looks set to be hit.

The hysteria stocks are doing particularly well.... FB, the high $41s.

VIX update from Mr T

time for lunch

11am update - its quiet out there

The main indexes are holding moderate gains, but it sure is quiet out there, and again that will allow the algo-bots to more easier melt the market higher across the next few days. Metals/Oil remain flat, but like equities, have underlying upside pressure.



Watching clown finance TV, Cashin noted NYSE volume at barely 100 million in the opening hour, it could turn out to be the lowest volume day of the year.

Without question, there is near zero reason to be short right now, not least with two major QEs for Tue/Wed.

I am hopeful of a re-short in the sp'1680/85 area, after the QE of Wed' morning.

FB +3%..almost in the 42s.   

Coal sector strong today..most are 3-5% higher.

10am update - minor chop

The main indexes open with a little chop, but there is a clear underlying bias to the upside. Metals/Oil remain flat, whilst the VIX is holding a small 1% gain, although if sp'1670s at the Monday close, will likely be in the 13s.



With very large QE both tomorrow and Wednesday, bears face a real problem in the first half of this week.

That should in theory allow the market to battle into the sp'1680s again. From there, I'm guessing we'll see some selling again.

For the moment, I'm still in no hurry to get involved.

Notable movers.. TSLA, +5%. I'm not sure whether that makes it more of a hysteria stock than FB or AMZN.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1661, after earlier being +5pts or so. Metals/Oil largely flat. Bulls still look set for the sp'1675/85 zone, but not until Tue/Wed - where there is sig' QE to help.



*market awaiting Durable Goods Orders at 8.30am: -7.3%...not exactly suggestive of a strong summer.

Well, another week begins.

It really comes down now to whether the recent sp'1709 high holds. Considering the weekly - and even the monthly charts, I'm guessing yes.

For the big/serious money, it is very simple, with a last ditch short-stop in the 1700/10 zone.

I remain on the sidelines, seeking to launch an index re-short, but not until the very large $5bn Tuesday QE is out of the way.

*notable mover already: the FB, which is almost in the $41s