Friday, 15 November 2013

Volatility melts into the weekend

Whilst the equity indexes held moderate gains, the VIX melted lower into the weekend, settling -1.5% @ 12.19. The VIX looks set to remain in a tight 13/11 range for another week or two. VIX 20s do not look viable until Jan/Feb 2014. Across the week, the VIX declined by -5.5%





The VIX continues to remain low, and even the mid teens now look out of range - at least for a few weeks.

VIX looks set to remain under the key 20 threshold for the remainder of the year. There looks to be a reasonable chance for a VIX spike into the low 20s when the debt ceiling issue arises next Jan/Feb.

For the VIX traders though, there seems little point in holding/picking up any VIX bullish positions, at least until mid January.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The US indexes closed the week with moderate gains, sp +7pts @ 1798. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.7% and +0.4% respectively. The near term trend remains strongly bullish, with a possible ceiling of 1810/30. VIX confirms a market that is almost entirely fearless.



..and another crazy week comes to a close in market land.

Did you have fun?

Have a good weekend everyone!

*the weekend posting will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - closing the week on a high

The US indexes look set to close the week on a high...with a small chance of the sp' breaching the 1800s. Metals are closing the a subdued manner..with Oil turning negative. VIX remains vulnerable to a closing hour smack down, to settle in the 11s.




The recent low of sp'1760 is now almost 2% lower, and even that looks unlikely to be tested for some weeks...perhaps even months.

I see some more top calling out there...which of surely just plain stupid.

Market has nothing to be concerned about (baring a sporadic news 'event')..until January.

3.25pm.. market making a play for sp'1800 and Dow 16k by the close..on a 'dumb spike'.

Nasty market....only another 4-6 months to go.

3.42pm.. VIX 12.30s.... just about enough time for Mr Market to whack it lower into the 11s for the  weekly close, which can often occur almost entirely in the closing minute or two.

3.55pm.. eyes on the VIX..lets see if they bring out the magical hammer in the closing minutes.

back at the close.

2pm update - Transports 7400s?

The weekly charts are offering the old leader - Transports, the 7400s within the near term..and that could be best we'll see this year. Metals still look weak..Oil is flat..and the VIX looks set to get whacked lower into 11s for the weekly close.

Trans, weekly'2, rainbow


Unquestionably..trans..outright bullish, and at least another 1-2 weeks to the upside.

With heavy QE next week, it would not be surprising to see the 7350/7400 zone which point we'll be due another period of sideways price chop..or (at best) 2-3% of retracement.


Notable strength in FCX.

Primary trend is bullish, and recent price action is a simple bull flag..being confirmed right now. It has certainly had a good run since June lows (sp'1560s sure are a long way down now).

Upside target for FCX ?  $40 min..possible 44.. $50 end spring 2014. .as a multi-month top.

1pm update - holding onto minor gains

The market is fighting hard to hold onto minor gains, with the Dow +40pts at 15920. There is zero reason to believe the equity bulls won't end the week on a high..quite possibly with a little spike into the close. Metals and Oil are seeing moderate chop into the weekend.

Dow, daily


*seen on the bigger monthly charts, the Dow offers a very clear multi-month bull flag, and has arguably been confirmed in the last few days.

Not much to add, although there is some interesting action in the coal miners today, BTU, ANR.all good gains, but then..they are still vastly below the highs of a year or two back.

ANR, daily

stay tuned!

12pm update - Dow 16k..not long to wait

With the break into the Dow 15800s..that was a clear enough level to clarify 16k..and very probably late spring 2014. Metals still look very weak. VIX has already broken into the 11s..and looks set for a weekly close there.




Just another day in market land..and with nothing to kick the market lower...we're just clawing our way inexorably higher.

What should really concern the bears is that next week is HEAVY QE-pomo, so any hope of even a 2% sp'1760 is the new floor.

VIX update from Mr T. TWTR options have appeared!

time for tea :)

11am update - a weekly VIX close in the 11s

With the sp' set for a close in the 1790/1805 zone, the VIX looks set for a weekly close in the 11s. Metals remain a touch weak, whilst Oil is +0.3%. Equity bulls remain in full control, in what is an almost entirely fearless market.



The point I've made a few times in recent months...this bizarrely tight range in the VIX could last a very long time. Just look back to 2005, VIX stayed low for over two years before the market started to see the first signs of trouble.

Notable weakness in...

STX, daily

I'm not sure why its significantly lower, but it is still holding above the old resistance top in the $46s

11.14am..and there are the VIX 11s.   I gotta wonder if single digit VIX in the current multi-month say..late March, and perhaps that will be a VIX low of the current 4 year rally.

10am update - just. another. day.

Many of the indexes break new historic highs, with the sp' having a moderate chance of a weekly close in the 1800s. There is upside to 1810/30 across the next few weeks. Metals look weak, and Dr Copper is in danger of losing the $3s within the next few weeks.



Well, another week coming to a close, and the equity bulls look strongly in command. Trading vol' remains light, but hey..when did that last matter? Buying is light..but selling is even lighter.

No QE today..but hey..go look at QE for next week..there are TWO Qe-pomo on Monday, urghh.

Seemingly zero chance of any pull back until at least >Nov'25.

Notable early mover.. TSLA.

I'm in agreement with Carboni, TSLA lower..although I'm gunning for 110/100, vs his 120s.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are slightly higher (again)..sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1795. Equity bulls have a real chance at a weekly close in the 1800s, which is simply incredible. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is a touch higher.



The 'moon ramp' continues, and I realise for many out there..this just

Oh well, only another 4-6 months to go.

Video update from Mr Permabull.

Surprisingly..he is bullish,  ;)

We have some econ-data to come...lets see if Mr Market likes it..and can battle into the 1800s by late morning. There is no QE today, but really, trend is up..anyway.

Over at Silicon investor 'Permabear Doomster in stunned disbelief this morning! LOL ....'

Err...really? I'm not surprised at any of this. 

I certainly expected these levels by year end, but even so..its still pretty incredible to see..but not as incredible as the big sp'2000 level will be next spring.

For you Silicon people out there....


Its a 'best guess' wave count, and to my own dismay..and is looking on track..into next spring.

Special note for the bears..don't get lost in hysteria when we see some weakness Jan/ will probably just be a sub wave'4..before another lurch  higher by March/April.

Have a good weekend...Silicon people!

Nasdaq to hit 4000

The Nasdaq Composite is a mere 28pts (0.75%) from hitting the giant psy' level of 4000. However, there is still a considerable way to go to hit the bubble peak of 5132 - from March 2000. That is around 30% higher...and will likely take until 2015 to be achieved.


Nasdaq, monthly'2 - 20yr


Seen on the huge twenty year chart, it should still be a major embarrassment to the equity bull maniacs that their much beloved tech sector is massively below the peak from over a decade ago.

Indeed, the Nasdaq chart is a great example of a blow-off top, something that I will be looking for in the entire US/World equity markets in the latter part of 2015/early 2016.

The 4000 level will surely be hit in the next few days, and no doubt, clown finance TV will probably attribute it to the 'policy success' of incoming US Federal Reserve chair(woman) ..the Yellen monster.

Looking ahead

The week concludes with a little array of econ-data. We have empire state manu' survey, import/export prices, indust' production, and wholesale trade. So..Mr Market will have plenty of excuse to find a direction by late morning.

It is opex tomorrow, volume should be somewhat higher, and price action should be a little more volatile/choppy.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.

Hyper-bullish chart on track

The weekly'8 count which I have been touting for some months, continues to look good, and Indeed, I've even been using it for my hourly count in recent days.


Generally speaking, we should see some kind of 'minor' wave the 10MA, which will be around 1750/60 by end Nov/early Dec. I simply can't see any further moves <1760 for the remainder of this year.

If the count is correct, then there should be a larger pull back in Jan/Feb ...before one final high in the March/May time zone. With the debt ceiling issue to appear again early next year...this would indeed make sense.

Permabears...hanging in there.

I realise for many out there, these remain VERY difficult times. Most of you are indeed of the 'permabearish persuasion', and I do sympathise with those still launching index-shorts or even meddling in volatility.

After all, index puts are cheaper than ever..not least with the low VIX. would seem we will broadly climb into late spring 2014. I just hope YOU will still be around when the current multi-month wave (from Oct'2011) concludes.

*As you may have noticed, I have a Twitter account now. I'm not sure if I'll regularly use it, but it is another way to keep in touch, so I'll probably keep it active. Follow me..if you like :)

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed mostly higher, with the sp +8pts @ 1790. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.3% and -0.1% respectively. Near term trend remains outright bullish, and a weekly close in the 1800s is just about possible.




Another new historic high for a number of indexes, inc' the Trans, Dow, and the Sp'500.

The Dow chart is especially bullish, having been stuck for half of the has decisively broken up and out. There is roughly a clear 10% upside into next spring, which will equate to Dow 17250 and Sp'2050/2150

a little more later...