Friday 24 January 2014

10am update - follow through weakness

For the first time since last October, equity bears are seeing two days of sig' downside in a row. How we close today will be critical. Metals are higher, with Gold breaking back above old support for first time since mid November. VIX is +12% in the mid 15s.


sp'60min


Trans'daily


Summary

*there is a lot to cover, but I think the above two charts cover the bigger issues right now.
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Clearly, the break <1815 confirms the dow break <16174...bulls are in trouble.

The old leader - Trans, which even managed to close yesterday higher, is getting smashed this morning, biggest fall since last August.
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*I should note, there is sig' QE of $2-3bn this hour...bears should at least be tightening short-stops right now.
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To the doomer bears out there...

All those still looking for a mid size collapse wave, should be clawing for a end Jan close <1767 - the FOMC low. If that 'miracle' occurred, it'd break the weekly up trend..and make things real interesting for March/April.

As it is, I don't expect that, but then..I didn't expect this morning's follow through either.
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10.11am.. minor bounce underway, but really...bulls need to clear 1830 before out of the problem zone.

Hey, at least its not a boring end to the week, right?


10.20am..battling it out at the 50 day of sp'1813/12.  Although yes...the Dow is already well below.

The real issue here is how big a bounce will the bulls get.


10.36am Consider this....

It taken the bears FOUR weeks to knock the market down from 1850 to 1809....

2.5% over FOUR weeks.  That is truly lousy