Wednesday 29 January 2014

3pm update - Taper'2 is a GO

The Fed have cut QE by $10bn a month (starting next Monday) to $65bn a month, as the market had expected. Despite a brief break <1772..the bears look exhausted today, and the door is now open to the 1810/15 zone..with VIX in the 15/14.50 zone.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

Okay..so..a really tricky hour..but then.post Fed hours are often a real mess.
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It would appear the market has stabilised after breaking the Monday low..and we're now set for a claw into the 1800s.

Primary target...remains 1810/15..where there are 4 or 5 key aspects of resistance.

I STILL expect the 1760s to be tested..but that now seems unlikely until next week.
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updates into the close..


3.03pm another small wave lower.. sp'1774....it sure is a mess out there..but.....

VIX is NOT showing any real concern. Equity bears really need to keep that in mind. Baring a break into the 19s....bears have a real problem right now.


3.13pm...it remains an ugly mess..now we have the hourly MACD cycle rolling over...bearish crosses all over the place... 1767/65 remains the key zone.

Despite the move under the Monday equity low, VIX is still well below the Monday spike of 18.99.


3.19pm... FB earnings at the close...one to watch!  Trend is broadly bullish, but short term bearish. Upside to $59/60...kinda reminds me of NFLX.

VIX +12%..but still...not in the 18s


3.33pm..it remains very marginal. I still think the one issue bears need to keep in mind..VIX is NOT showing any real upside kick. I'd be concerned of upside risk across Thur/Friday - not least with $5bn QE on Friday..to conclude the month.


3.44pm.. market again trying to push back upward.

Eyes on the VIX..which has FAILED to break a new  high..whilst sp' did marginally break the Monday low.

Bears...beware!


3.49pm.. VIX cooling down...equity day-trading bears should be making a run for it   Real risk of sp'1810/15..before the next major wave lower.

Notable strength: STX, +4.7%, but still..a likely dead-cat bounce.