Tuesday 28 January 2014

Weekly cycles are conclusively broken

Despite the latter day recovery (part of a very natural bounce), after new daily cycle lows earlier in the day, the bigger weekly cycles are now clearly broken. Most indexes are suggestive of further downside to the low sp'1700s, no later than mid/late February.


R2K, weekly


Summary

All of the US equity indexes now generally look like the above R2K chart. With the R2K conclusively breaking the trend from Nov'2012...things look clearer, at least for a few weeks.
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Best case for the bears

The following few charts should clarify what I am now seeking in the coming weeks and months. If sp'1850 was an intermediate top - completing the wave from Oct'2011, then we should eventually battle lower to the mid 1500s.


sp'daily1b


sp'weekly7b


Daily1b is one outlook that might frustrate many bears..but it'd still result in downside to the mid/low 1700s by mid/late February.

What would be VERY much more exciting is if we break <1765/55 this week..or next - see weekly7b, that would likely result in a fast hit of the 200 day MA..along with the lower weekly bollinger in the low 1700s. If 1850 was a key intermediate high, then the primary target are the mid 1500s..just a few months away.


Looking ahead

A busy Tuesday is ahead. We have Durable Goods Orders, Consumer confidence. There is the start of the FOMC meeting, and we have King O' addressing the senate/congress at 9pm EST.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn, bears..beware!
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We have a VERY busy week now underway..and I'd better stop there!

Goodnight from London