Tuesday 4 February 2014

10am update - opening failed gains

The smaller 15/60min index cycles are clearly oversold, but momentum is so strong to the downside that even a 5/10pt bounce is fading within minutes. The only hope for the bulls is QE today, but the effect of that will likely be very short lived. Metals are weak, Gold -$6


sp'60min


sp'daily5


Summary

*VIX opens lower by around -6%, but it looks set for the 25/27s..when sp' is testing the 200 day MA @ 1708..and rising each day.
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The bigger weekly cycles are what most should be looking at. As ever...'don't get lost in the minor noise'.

Notable mover: UGAZ +18%....so Nat' gas prices +6%.  I guess its still cold? Urghhh
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9.54am... and the market jumps into the 1750s....

Another re-short opportunity..very viable..today....with a clear 40pts of downside. 

After all, who wants to go long here, seriously?--

Arguably, ideal level for a re-short...back test of the recent bear flag...1770..but that seems just a little out of range. More likely 1760/65..and then another rollover.


10.01am.. Factory Orders -1.5%...not great, although that was for the Christmas/holiday season.

VIX -10% in the low 19s....that is going to be an attractive level soon.


10.09am Best case for the bulls..a bounce to 1760/65..by 2pm..and then a late afternoon rollover. Considering the current gains..a red close still very viable.

VIX holding the low 19s.. just over the old double top


Interesting level for VIX calls...after opening index gains.

10.25am.. minor chop..mess.

Well, anyone out there is getting a chance to go long VIX in the low 19s...with sp'1745/50.

*the overnight drop in Japan..pretty significant..I'll cover that later though.