Tuesday 4 February 2014

11am update - choppy minor gains

US indexes are holding minor gains of 0.25-0.5%, certainly nothing for the bulls to get excited about. The VIX has cooled down by 10%, and is holding just above the recent double top..in the low 19s. Metals are weak, Gold -$7


sp'60min


Summary

Regardless of the minor bounce...we'll surely resume lower again. Daily/weekly cycles are pressing down very hard....target remains 1710/1690. Closer we get to there...target will likely be slightly refined.

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Update on Japan, Nikkei, monthly

*chart does not update until the US daily close.

Tuesday decline was -610pts, to 14008.


As I noted at the weekend, 14k is the first major level, with 12k after that. I suppose 12k might equate to sp'1700/1680s..which is just about possible in the current multi-week down cycle.


11.21am.. VIX holding the low 19s very well, considering the index gains. 22/23 looks an easy target..if not 25/27.  Regardless, there is a clear 40pts downside in the sp' right now.

Notable strength: UGAZ, +19%