Wednesday 19 February 2014

3pm update - minor chop into the close

The hourly index cycles are pretty clear, having seen sideways chop for the last 17 trading hours or so, we're now primed for another wave higher. With heavy QE tomorrow of $4-5bn, equity bears face major problems for the remainder of the week.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*I realise a few will be getting interested with the second daily gain in the VIX, but really, its a small gain, and equities still appear generally strong.
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So..the Fed minutes are out of the way, and other than the geo-political news from the Ukraine, bulls should be fine to resume this latest rally.

Notable gains: UGAZ +12%.  Although front month (March) Nat Gas prices are around 10% higher. Some might expect UGAZ to be up 30%, but..then UGAZ is probably based on multiple futures months..not just front month.

Most recognise..the closer we get to spring...Gas prices are closer to a multi-month peak.


3.12pm.. best case downside into the close 1830, but at that point, we're going to have all the small cycles really oversold.

Considering the QE tomorrow...bears are getting the chance to exit before next wave.

Metals slipping (but slowly)...Gold -$8, Silver -1.5%


3.26pm..well, we're at 1830...things really only get interesting if <1826.

VIX +10% in the 15.30s.... ..metals weak, Gold -$10
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Certainly, not exactly boring last hour...but neither are the moves significant.

3.41pm.. market trying to floor in the 1830/29 area.

ALL smaller cycles are very low...highly vulnerable to sig' upside tomorrow


3.50pm... The daily close will certainly off the bears some hope overnight, but really, QE..and from a pure cyclical perspective, it looks a lousy setup for those on the short side.

back at the close.