Tuesday 11 February 2014

3pm update - Yellen into the close

US equities are holding significant gains, with the sp' comfortably above the 50 day MA in the upper 1810s. VIX confirms the gains, -6% in the low 14s. Clearly, Yellen is going to solve ALL our economic problems within her first year (idiocracy reference..anyone?)


sp'60min


Summary

*oh jeez, Yellen is STILL talking..   see cspan'3   I can normally cope with 2 hours of fedspeak..but 4, 5...urghhh
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Clearly, we're due some kind of retracement after the ramp from 1737 to 1820, but hey...guessing a small cycle top is damn tricky.

The fact we're already above the old floor of 1815 (remember how that was a key break?), should be enough for anyone still short..to be waving the white flag.

However you want to count this nonsense..the trend sure ain't down, is it?
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Notable strength in UGAZ, +13%.


Is it getting cold again? There is the usual problem of decay though. Daily MACD cycle is kinda low..., but it doesn't look so great as a long.
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*watching the Yellen..into the close.... VIX looks set to lose the 14s.


3.02pm.. If you listen closely, you can hear cries of 'make it stop...make it stop'.

sp'1821.....a mere 29pts to new historic highs.  I don't expect that this week. or even next (since its opex), but in March...absolutely.


3.20pm.. 1823...and just like Yellen...this market keeps on going.   VIX set to lose the 14s.


3.40pm.. looks like we have a multi-day top of sp'1823...

Hourly MACD cycle is starting to rollover...nothing decisive yet..but for the swing traders out there, makes for an easy short-stop.
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*Yellen has finally stopped talking (I think).


3.43pm.. first retracement target...would be big 1800 psy level

Looking at the fib levels...1790/80 zone would be the primary target zone, before new historic highs.

3.50pm...1823 is a good ceiling....downside retrace to 1800/1780...but certainly NOT <1770, with the weekly charts now bullish.

3.57pm...rolling over............ back at the close !