Tuesday 4 February 2014

Volatility cools down for a day

After the Monday surge into the 21s, the VIX is in a brief cooling phase, settling -10.9% @ 19.11. If sp'1710/1690 in the near term is hit, then VIX looks set to briefly soar in the 25/27 zone - perhaps testing the high from June 2012 - when sp' was a mere 1266!


vix'60min


vix'daily3


Summary

*the VIX jumped in the brief 15mins of AH, back into the low 19s.
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So..a significant drop in the VIX, but overall, it is holding up relatively well. Equity bears seeking much lower levels should be able to take away some confidence from the VIX.

We have a VIX that is holding the high teens, which is something we've not seen since summer 2012

If sp'1710/1690 in the days ahead, then VIX should be at least 22/23..if not 25/27. From there..we should see a significant multi-week equity bounce..with a corresponding major collapse in the VIX..back to the mid teens.

Something to ponder over...if 1850 is a key inter'3 top, then how high will the VIX spike across the next few months? I'd have to target at least the low 30s...but things would really get wild if we can briefly trade into the 40s - a level not seen since Oct' 2011.
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More later..on the indexes