Friday 21 March 2014

10am update - morning break through

After three days of trying, the equity bulls finally break the sp'1875 resistance, and with a truck load of short-stops getting hit, the market breaks a new historic high. VIX breaks back into the 13s, taking out the pre-FOMC low.  Metals are holding gains, Gold +$10


sp'15min


vix'60min


Summary

*the only thing equity bears have right now is an opening reversal candle on the VIX, but really, I don't have much faith in that with new index highs.
--

On balance, it'd seem the chances of these opening gains fully reversing, are less than 5%, and the door is now wide open to the sp'1900s in early April.

For those buying the FOMC Yellen drop...congrats, I guess you could say, 'normal service resumes'.
-

I am probably straw-clutching, but the R2K opens with a black-fail candle...

R2K, 60min


Hmm ?


10.02am.. so... an opening VIX reversal candle, and a R2K black-fail candle....

*for those wondering, my core short block (SDS) came within 2 cents of being kicked (its 2x lev, I keep a loose 2% stop loss). If I don't get kicked today, I'll be somewhat surprised.


10.11am.. VIX jumps...but I can't take any of this seriously unless 16s..and that sure is a long way up, and would be equiv' to sp'1850/45


10.27am.. Now the Trans' looks in danger of turning red.  Hmm

I'm entirely refraining from watching any clown finance TV this morning, but I can guess at what their cheer leader script is saying. 
-

Eyes...on the VIX.  Equity bears need a surge to the low 16s to negate this mornings train wreck.


10.32am.. Anyone know whats up with the Nasdaq, -0.6% ?

So... Trans, R2K, Tech'....somewhat weak.