Monday 17 March 2014

3pm update - battling into the FOMC

Equities are holding significant gains, and the sp'500 looks set for a close in the 1855/65 zone, which sets up a pretty easy break into the 1870s by Wednesday afternoon. VIX remains smashed, -12% in the 15.60s. Metals are weak, Gold -$13


sp'60min


Summary

The smaller 5/15min cycles are suggestive of further strength..rather than downside in the closing hour.
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Regardless of the exact close...bulls clearly start the week pretty strong, although I'd agree there really isn't any real buying going on.

..and if it is just a bounce..it is a pretty good one to be shorting, although I'll still waiting until the FOMC announcement is out the way.
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3.12pm... sp'1860...and it will be interesting to see how many bears capitulate across the next few days.

GDX -2.7%..more on that one after the close..on my 'fair value' page.


3.25pm... so.. a possible close in the 1860s..with VIX 15s. Frankly, the bulls are getting a real opportunity to exit here, before market carnage.

Despite not currently hysterical about the Ukraine, I do consider it a VERY serious issue, and there remains high risk of the situation spiraling.

VIX opex is at the Tue' open...14s look very likely.