Wednesday 19 March 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed higher for the second consecutive day, sp +13pts @ 1872. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled with gains of 0.5% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is marginal, with the threat of new highs, but also a significant reversal tomorrow afternoon.


sp'daily5


R2K



Trans


Summary

The strength in the R2K is especially notable, and both the two leaders are within 0.3% of breaking new historic highs.

Unquestionably, if the Trans/R2K break new highs tomorrow, it will wreck the near term bearish case, with immediate upside to the sp'1900s.

Tomorrow should offer some clarity, based on the weekly charts, I'm still calling for a wave lower, but we are probably only talking about 5/6% lower..not exactly the big one most bears are looking for.

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a little more later...dealing with how I will approach tomorrow