Monday 21 April 2014

10am update - minor chop to start the week

US equities open with minor price chop, but with the usual underlying upward pressure. Hourly index cycles are suggestive of downside later today/early Tuesday, but with sig' QE of $3-4bn, any weakness is going to be itself...weak in power. Metals are lower, Gold -$5


sp'60min


Summary

Relatively quiet, and as clown finance TV note, with many of the EU indexes closed, there isn't much going on.

However, there is NFLX earnings at the close of today, and that'll be interesting to watch.
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Bigger weekly charts..upper bol' now into the mid 1890s..and 1900s will be viable by end month.

sp'weekly8


Two green candles...and the sp'1900s are less than 2% away.
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10.03am... well, here comes the first attempt to clear the Fed minutes high of 1872.

10.06am.. There was a time when I'd be hitting the short-button right now. Yet, with daily/weekly charts as they are....no. I'd rather do nothing. 

Default trade is surely to the long side. I'd only drop that outlook on a break <1814, and that is now 56pts lower - a good 3%.


10.15am.. indexes look stuck.  VIX hourly wants to snap higher.

So..1870.. down to 1850/45, by early tomorrow?


10.21am.. its slow, but we are rolling over. Makes for an easy short-side trade, with stop of 1870/73


10.45am..choppy, but the weakness is there.

I still have to think, bears are going to get a chance to exit 1850/45..before a move to the 1900s in early May.