sp'15min
Summary
*I am 'moderately' short, via an index, and a VIX call block (first VIX since last summer), will hold overnight, and see how we trade Thurs/Friday.
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So...a fed spike..and now the issue is do we close at the highs..or see some sort of sell down.
If can break the little up trend - currently 1862 at the close of today, then there is no reason why we won't be trading in the 1850/45 zone tomorrow.
VIX'60min
VIX has currently hit and trying to floor on my somewhat arbitrary upward line.
3.02pm.. provisional rollover on the 15min cycle....hourly probably won't be clear until early tomorrow.
Interesting spike on the 2pm hourly candle though. A 'stupid' fed spike, I'd call it. Someone in Elliot wave land needs to have an official category for anomalous 'stupid fed spikes'.. the SFS candle
3.17pm.. who wants to go long here? Post Fed spike, after a wave from 1837..to 1869 across just under 2 days? Anyone?
Micro cycles remain burnt out, we're due for a down wave, the only issue is how far....will it be lower than the start point of 1837?
USD - 0.3%..and that is no doubt helping the metals.. Gold +$2...from -5
3.30pm.. minor chop....'toppy' chop?
Best case close right now.. 1866/64, with VIX 14.20/30s.
3.35pm...the sp'1870s....hmm.. Well, original target zone 1865/75... so long as we don't go much above there, I ain't concerned.
Unless you think new highs will occur on 'magical earnings', this remains a bounce to short.
3.54pm.. I smell toppy chop. Bull maniacs had a good bounce wave....rest of the week..should be a battle into the weekend...to take out the 50 day MA again. back at the close!