Friday 11 April 2014

3pm update - a weekly close for the bears

Regardless of any minor action in the closing hour, the equity bears are now assured of a very bearish weekly close. The weekly 'rainbow' charts will settle with a red candle, and that keeps open the door to 1770s next Mon-Thursday (Friday is closed).


sp'15min


sp'weekly7


Summary

It has been a busy week....next week is likely going to be....somewhat wild.

Despite 3 'reasonable' exits, today feels like utter failure. I am not in the mood to chase this crap lower, not with the threat of a whipsaw higher on Monday (not that I expect that).

To me..it all seems like a near total waste of time..for the effort involved. Oh well, at least I'm not long.
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3.13pm.. minor weak chop...sp'1818...and a VIX in the low 17s.

Even chocolates are not helping my mood right now. Where is a gods damn bounce when I need one?
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3.18pm.. bull maniacs trying to break a micro cycle upward...but..really.. how is it going to bounce now, unless some sort of mass short-covering?

So frustrating. The only level I'd consider a re-short into the weekend... sp'1827/30..maybe.


3.21pm.. Zerohedge speculating about a 3.30pm mini-ramp... .that sure won't be easy today.

Oh well, lets see if there is a brief short-cover cascade..but not long left now.


3.23pm... VIX on the slide...market 1821...but hell, that still makes for one major bearish weekly close.


3.26pm.. strongly considering..picking up a VIX block in 5-10 mins.


3.29pm.. LONG VIX from 16.90s  , seeking low 20s next Tue/Wed

3.33pm.. SHORT, via SPY, from sp'1820... seeking 1770s......

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3.36pm.. I feel better now, lol. Ahh yes...back on the short train...it is a warm and fuzzy feeling.

I will HOLD short across the weekend, via SPY puts and VIX calls....

seeking sp'1770s, with VIX somewhere in the low 20s... I suppose 23/25 is possible, if the market gets moody when it loses the 1800 threshold.


3.40pm... lets see how many of the rats sell into the weekend. After all, they know the 1770s are coming, why would they not sell?


3.49pm.. VIX back in the 17s....indexes a bit twitchy.....frankly...I'm exhausted..

3.52pm.. look at those rats SELL. They want OUT.