Thursday 10 April 2014

The remainder of the week

It has already been a pretty dynamic week, with the sp'500 failing to hold the 50 day MA, hitting a low of 1837, and rallying to 1872. The bull maniacs have had a natural.. and expected up wave. However, the weekly cycles remain weak, and many agree, the door is still open to lower lows.


sp'weekly


Summary

No doubt there will be a great deal of bullish hysteria across the many chart/finance sites this evening. Yet, with the floor spike yesterday morning, a bounce was clearly underway, and we have reached my target zone of sp'1865/75.

I should note, I would be surprised if we are trading in the 1880s tomorrow morning, but even if we are, I can't conceive that the market will be able to close at such a level. VIX is extremely low in the 13.80s, and the hourly/daily cycles are both relatively low.


Looking ahead

There is the usual jobs data, but other than that..nothing of significance.

*there is sig'QE-pomo of around $3bn.
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On the short side... again

Yours truly is 'moderately short', from sp'1866, and a VIX in the 13.90s. Frankly, I'd consider a provisional exit in the 1850/45 zone tomorrow..if we do trade there. As it is, I find it difficult to accept the Tuesday low as a key low. The price action wasn't in the style of a key low, at least, that is how I perceive it.

Right now, I still have a small hope of the sp'1780/60 zone within a week or two. Not because it would be highly profitable for my latest trades, but because it would clarify the bigger picture for the next few months.

With the Fed out of the way, price action should be more dynamic, tomorrow won't likely be dull!

Goodnight from London