Tuesday 6 May 2014

Closing Brief

US equities closed weak, sp -16pts @ 1867. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -1.6% respectively. Despite the daily declines, near term outlook is for a renewed push higher, into the 1890/1900s by end of the week, to be 'inspired' by Yellen.


sp'60min


Summary

*the significant fall in the R2K is a problem for the bulls, but so far..it is still holding the recent lows.
 --

Price action just does not favour the bears in my view. The VIX remains relatively low, and despite today's equity weakness, the VIX only gained 3-4%...which barely rates at 'moderate gains' 
--

With Yellen due to speak to the US congress tomorrow morning, unless she says something particularly stupid, the market will likely spin it as 'happy talk', and rally on it.

Certainly, from a pure cyclical perspective, the 15/60min index cycles are all primed for significant upside.

Do I sound like a permabull?  Urghh.
--

more later...on the VIX