Wednesday 4 June 2014

3pm update - micro chop into the close

With the ECB announcement due tomorrow, the market will surely see further micro chop into the close, as few traders will want to take new positions. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. VIX looks set for the 8th consecutive daily close in the 11s.


vix'daily3


Summary

Broadly speaking, I think there might be a very short term top this Friday morning, with maybe 1.5-2% of downside, but then up into the FOMC of June'18th.
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As for the ECB, I'm guessing they do lower rates, but most certainly do not launch a QE program.
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A relatively quiet day...but with a new historic high for the sp'500....Dow/Trans look set to follow.