sp'weekly8b
Summary
So, with the afternoon reversal, the 11th weekly green candle has turned blue. Certainly, it could easily turn back to green by the Friday close, but even if it stays blue... it doesn't mean the broader trend is due to change.
My wave count - the vain attempt that it is, is still suggestive of higher levels into mid July. From there, I would be seeking a multi-week down cycle. The big issue is whether that amounts to a decline of just 4-6%...or something more.
No doubt, there will be many touting today's reversal as a potential key top, but really..I just can't see it. A down wave/reversal was expected this week, and I've little doubt we'll rally into end month.. and probably at least the first half of July - as Q2 earnings start to appear.
Cashing out?
The following video by Don Harrold is pretty provocative, and I wanted to highlight it here.
Without question, 99% of the mainstream will not be selling into rising prices. Only the 'insiders' tend to have the inclination to do that. The next major wave lower.. whether this year..next.. or whenever, will be just another occasion when the average retail investor will ask themselves 'why did I not at least cash some/all of my stocks out after such huge multi-year gains?'
Looking ahead
Tomorrow has durable goods orders and Q1 GDP (final reading), market is expecting a downward revision to -1.5/-2.0%.. As ever though, market will be more concerned on what the Q2 number might be, but that is not due for another 5 trading weeks.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $3bn... bears.. beware!
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Crawling along the floor
I remain only holding a single long position, WFM, which today continued to churn out a floor. So long as it doesn't go any lower, the upside/recovery potential remains.
WFM' 60min
Goodnight from London