Saturday 28 June 2014

Early summer doldrums

It was a relatively quiet week for the US equity market, with the sp' seeing a fractional net weekly decline of -1.9pts (-0.1%). Next week looks to be even quieter, since it is a 3.5 'holiday' trading week. Market outlook is for renewed upside into the week of July'14-18.


sp'weekly8b


Summary

*after all the minor chop..the weekly 'rainbow' candle turned back to green late Friday afternoon. Eleven consecutive green candles... since the key low of sp'1814..which is now a significant 146pts lower (7%)
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Something for the late summer/autumn

The following is a 'best bear case' scenario, and assumes Dow 17100/300 zone in mid July..and then a multi-month down wave.

Dow'monthly'3
 

A major retracement of the Oct'2011 wave would make for a great down wave for the bears, but even more so... a great place to get long for 2015. I'm still largely resigned to 'general' upside into late 2015/early 2016.

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Well, it was a relatively quiet week, and I think that will suffice for this week.

Have a good weekend...

... and goodnight from London
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*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes