sp'weekly8b
Summary
With the break back into the 1940s, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has turned back to blue. Equity bulls should be content with a weekly close in the 1940s, but with price momentum as it is, Friday will likely settle somewhere in the 1950/60s.
It is highly notable that the upper bollinger on the weekly cycle is already offering the 2010s in the immediate term. However, I would guess the 2000s won't be seen until next month, even though we are now just 2.6% away.
Speculative doom
The following is just one of a number of scenarios I am keeping in mind for the autumn, but I have to admit.. it is a personal favourite.
sp'weekly8e - H/S
On any basis, downside to the mid/low 1700s would be a valid target. A 'natural back test of the 2000/2007 top' to the sp'1625/1575 zone looks damn difficult.. but still, if the downside is powerful (with VIX at least in the 30s)...then maybe its possible.
Looking ahead
Jobless claims, import/export prices... in the scheme of things...not much.
*there is sig' QE of around $1.5/2.0bn... bears beware!
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Unsettled on the long side
Yours truly remains long (from sp'1937), and considering the daily MACD cycles, I decided to hold overnight.. despite some mild concern that German GDP (due Thursday morning) might be a problem. As things are, I will endeavour to remain broadly long until mid/late September... to the sp'2030/50 zone.
Goodnight from London