Monday 29 September 2014

10am update - breaking new cycle lows

The equity bears have already achieved some significant milestones, breaking the Thurs' low of sp'1965.. and confirmed via VIX 17s. The bigger weekly charts are offering 1910/1890 within the near term. Gold is catching a slight 'fear bid'.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*there are a hundred charts I'd like to highlight right now, but the above should at least remind everyone of the bigger issue...

We're starting the week with a red candle....and primary target would be the lower weekly bollinger.

As things are..I think equity bears should merely look for a slightly higher target of 1920/10s. It is NOT necessary to hit the August low, although it is notable that the R2K has already broken it.
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*I hold short from last Friday afternoon, seeking an exit in the sp'1955/45 zone.

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The 100 day MA of sp'1956/55 is next intraday target... we might a micro bounce from there.


10.09am.. minor chop... but still, the bears have already done some notable damage.. would be useful to see the 1950s by 11am... but not 'absolutely necessary'.

VIX holding 10% gains in the 16s...it will VERY important to close above the opening high of 17.08... seems viable.
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10.25am.... hard to keep up... black-fail candle on the VIX... hence the current equity bounce...



Bears had better negate that by end day... with a daily close >17.10.
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10.49am.. Bears getting really rattled by this QE fuelled morning bounce.

Still...a long day ahead.... I ain't particularly concerned...yet.