Thursday 4 September 2014

10am update - new highs

The 'old leader' - Transports, has already broken a new historic high, and is a strong signal that the market will continue to broadly climb into next week. USD is +0.6%, and that remains a problem for commodity land. VIX is in melt mode.. -4%, in the 11s.


Trans, daily


Summary

So...EU lowers rates, and we have some kind of bond buying program - although the details on that remain VERY murky. I'm not sure anyone has a clue about how that will actually be implemented.. even Draghi seemed unable to answer the question.
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As for the market..well, we ain't lower. Sure, we're not 'soaring', but bulls have nothing to prove.

Daily/weekly cycles continue to offer 2025/30 in the immediate term, and that remains a threat to anyone currently short.


Notable reversal in AAPL, swinging from the 97s.. to $99, and set to re-take the $100 threshold. A daily close in the $100s would be pretty bullish, and re-open the door to $110.
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10.17am... New historic high on the Dow... NYSE comp'.. set to follow.

Best guess...2% higher to come..across the next two weeks...into opex/FOMC week..which would give us the sp'2045/55 zone.


10.34am... sp'2010.....