Thursday 25 September 2014

2pm update - price action sure is different

US equities remain significantly lower, and price action is very different from what we're used to. The break of sp'1978 is a very decisive one to recognise, and with the VIX pushing into the 16s, the bigger weekly cycles are turning ugly.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*I've a bearish weekly H/S chart, but I'll save that for later this evening. For now, suffice to note... with a red candle...the near term is now outright bearish.. and the door has opened to the 1920/00 zone - back to the August low.
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Micro waves.... very weak.... even a retrace to the mid 1980s looks increasingly tough.

sp'15min

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stay tuned...


2.04pm.. sp'1966... another new low...truly ugly.

Seemingly pointless for anyone to attempt day-trade longs.... whilst price action remains so weak.

The broader downside target is a pretty clear 1920/00... by late next week. If so...the broader picture will have changed.....but hey...more on that later.

Notable weakness: DRYS -7% in the $2.50s...if key market top is in...DRYS looks set to lose the $2s in November.


2.16pm.... here is something.... hourly MA will be around sp'1978 at the close.. and for those seeking much lower levels...it'd make for a primary level to short.


2.40pm.. adjusting the fib levels... new 'fair' upside looks to be 1978/80 in the closing hour.

With the technical breaks... this market is going to struggle to break back and hold the 1980s.

The giant sp'2000 threshold is fading away.