Thursday 9 October 2014

2pm update - no minutes to screw up today

US equities remain sharply lower, and unlike yesterday, the bull maniacs don't have a Fed press release to save them. A break below the double floor of sp'1926/25 looks highly probable.. and should equate to VIX in the 19s.


sp'daily5


Summary

Without question, this afternoon is much 'clearer' than yesterday.. even though to many, this price action is getting ever more confusing.

We continue to put in a series of lower lows.... 1968 is now 'last line' for the bears, but that looks very secure now. Indeed, I'd call the daily 10MA @ 1959, the short-stop line.
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Best downside case remains sp'1904... which might equate to VIX 21/22....

On NO outlook do I see a persistent break <1900 in the current down cycle.
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VIX weekly


A weekly close >17.50.. would be VERY important, and clarify the 2011 wave... is concluded.


2.33pm... Dow -337, with VIX 19s.....  good huh?