Friday 17 October 2014

3pm update - cooling into the weekend

Having built gains from sp'1820 to 1898, US equities have started to cool, with the VIX holding the psy' level of 20. Metals remain a touch weak, Gold -$2. Oil has lost almost all of the opening gains (1.2%), now just +0.2%.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

Its been one hell of a dynamic week..  with sp'1820, and a VIX of 31. Just a month ago that seemed impossible to almost everyone... including yours truly.
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With one hour to go, equity bears should be looking at least for a close <1880.. something in the 1875/70 zone would be 'useful', and would break the near term up trend.

Similarly, look to the VIX, for a close in the 23/24s which will keep open the door to a sub 5'th wave down to sp'1815/10 next week.

Notable weakness: RIG, -5.3%... with continued talk of renewed lower oil/gas prices into next year.


3.09pm chop chop.... bulls struggling to hold the 1880 threshold... the hourly 10MA is 1879....a weekly close in the 1875/70 zone looks very viable, with VIX 24s.


3.16pm.. and another jump higher..... sp'1888... with VIX cooling to the low 22s.

This is starting to get real annoying.


3.39pm.. a close <1880 looks out of range now.... which is pretty depressing. We'll close within the near term up trend... with the threat of 1900s on Monday.

oh well, at least volatility is back...  so the weeks ahead won't be dull.


3.51pm... tiresome end to the week.... with sp'1890s... and VIX 21/22s.

back at the close...