sp'60min
GDX, daily
Summary
Price action remains classic algo-bot melt mode, perhaps one of the most tiresome phenomena anyone can experience.
The real action is in the metals/miners. Metals are battling to bounce hard.. but the old broken floor of Gold $1179 is going to be near impossible to break back over. Similarly, miners will likely get stuck.. and turn lower once metals are exhausted. Broader targets remain unchanged.
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The cursed Permabear
I am quite aware I am cursed, and it is rarely easy in my world. I have battled through much of 2014 in warrior mode, but it hasn't been enough. Effectively a year of overall failure. What is clear though, sacrifices have to be made on the part of the equity/macro-econ bears, and why not via me?
With a real attempt to maximise loss (via the smaller 5/15min cycles), I have duly closed out a remaining index-short at sp'2033. Hopefully, it will be enough of a 'bearish sacrifice' to turn this market lower.
Right now, at best, equity bears might get a hit of the 50dma - the sp'1970s within a week or two.
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VIX update from Mr T
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time for a capitulation lunch (which surprisingly, doesn't include cyanide today).
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1pm... little to add.
Minor chop.. with VIX stuck in the mid 13s.
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Notable recovery in RIG, +0.2%... which is a strong reversal from opening -8%. Overall though, the news is lousy, and with broadly weak oil prices, the oil/gas drillers look set for much lower levels into spring 2015.
back at 2pm