Tuesday 4 November 2014

Daily Wrap

A quiet start to a new month, sp -0.2pts @ 2017 (new historic intra high 2024). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.3% respectively. A moderate down wave looks likely after the Tuesday US elections. As things are, even the 1970s look tough to reach.


sp'daily3 - fib levels


VIX'daily3


Summary

*the above fib chart assumes sp'2024 as a cycle top, but we could easily keep on clawing higher tomorrow/Wednesday.
--

So, another new high for the sp'500. Just reflect that we've ramped from 1820 to 2024 -  a gain of 11.2%, across 14 trading days.

The VIX managed to hold minor gains across the day, but this is not surprising considering the looming US elections.
-


Oil - continuing to slide

The October close was exceptionally bearish, and it is no surprise to see continued downside, lower by a very significant -2.4%, into the $78s

WTIC monthly'2, rainbow


The $65/60 target zone looks very probable early next year. From there, long Oil would seem a very reasonable trade, at least back to the 90/100 zone. On any basis, lower energy prices are going to really help the US, and broader world economy. Of course, the one notable exception will be... energy stocks.
--

Closing update from Riley (in front of a pool... but pretending he is still on the floor, I really wish he'd forgo the green screen).



Frankly, if a retrace does only make it to the 1990s... thats a sick joke.
--


Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Intl trade and Factory orders data.

There are mid-term US elections, although of course, no results until overnight Tue/Wed.
--


Pork Bellies... I knew it!

One of the first sites I check at the start of each day is Finviz. A look at Finviz - see HERE, this evening, they've added VIX to the primary table. That is good to see, but none other than Pork Bellies is the one to have been dropped. I.... knew.......it.

Bye Bellies... hello VIX

*Ohh yeah, notice Oil at $102, that is 30% higher - screenie data on left side is from March'9th 2014.

If you saw the lunch time VIX update from Mr T, he mentioned something about VIX futures/options with planned extended trading hours. It seems the CBOE are still in the process of extending trading hours.
--



All fans of Trading places should start Tuesday with a bacon sandwich.

-
Goodnight from London