Wednesday 26 November 2014

Daily Wrap

Yet another quiet day for the US equity market, sp -2pts @ 2067 (new historic high of 2074). The broader hyper-ramp from mid October continues, and there looks to be high probability of the low sp'2100s, before the next minor retrace... at best 'sp'2000'.


sp'weekly7


VIX' daily3


Summary

*VIX remains in melt mode, settling -2.9% at 12.25... headed for the 11s.
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The sixth consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and there is little reason why the market won't be able to break into the low 2100s before year end.

On any basis... this ongoing hyper-ramp from mid October is incredible... but then, what will people say when we're close to sp'3000 within the next 9-15 months?
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WTIC Oil - the $60s are still on track

As I mentioned in early October, with the break of $90 support, the door opened wide for the next key level of the $60s. We're well on the way...

WTIC, monthly'2


The 65/60 zone looks a relatively easy target for spring 2015. The only issue then will be... does supply start to be reduced.. and/or demand start to increase?

There is increasing talk of the $40s.. the first to suggest (that I know of) was Oscar Carboni. Just this morning, the Cramer was touting 40s for next year. Regardless, lower oil prices are bullish for the broader US and world economy... even most doomer bears should be able to accept that.
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Closing update from Riley

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Looking ahead

Wed' will see a veritable truck load of data... Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, pers' income/outlay, consumer sent', new/pending home sales.

*The EIA Oil and Nat' gas reports are reportedly also due, but I would not be surprised if they don't appear until Friday.

With the Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday, trading will be even lighter tomorrow. No doubt.. a fair few traders are just taking the entire week off anyway.
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Goodnight from London