Wednesday 31 December 2014

King dollar remains King

Despite relentless protestations from the 'dollar doomers', the US currency has built a solid trading floor across the last seven years. The USD has recently achieved a decisive breakout, and looks set for the giant 100 level in 2015. From there.... 120 and beyond.

USD, monthly, 15yr


Summary

Little to add... I merely wanted to highlight the USD to close today.
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I could cite Schiff.. along with the other 'usual suspects'. None of them get it yet... despite a break into the DXY 90s. Its pretty weird.. but oh well... they'll never be bullish dollar... its simply not in their range of 'available outlooks/scenarios'.


After all, would you rather hold Yen or Euros?

No doubt some would say 'no FIAT for me!', but seriously... the bigger picture is clear. Euro/Yen will continue to weaken against the USD, not least since the BoJ and ECB are both intent on QE 'until everything is fixed'.
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Looking ahead

The last day of 2014 will see a trio of econ-data points... jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales. Market is seeking a PMI of 60.8... which is considerably far above from the recessionary threshold of 50.

*for the super equity bulls out there (sp'2500 and above)... they should be seeking a United States PMI in the 70s in 2015... not least due to very low energy costs.. which is extremely bullish for the broader economy.
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One day left of 2014

It has been another crazy year in market land. I could say a lot more.. but I will leave that for tomorrow.


*there is still time to submit your end 2015 target.. see HERE
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Goodnight from London