Friday, 9 May 2014

Volatility melts into the weekend

It was another day of mild index chop, and the VIX managed an early spike high of 14.03, but settled -3.8% @ 12.92. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 14/11 zone, with further index upside into mid/late May. Across the week, the VIX gained 0.1%





Little to add.

Equity bears remain weak, and this is very much reflected in a VIX that continues to struggle just to hold the low teens.

If the market pushes higher early next week into the 1890/1900s, VIX looks set to further melt lower into the 11s. The only issue for me, is whether the VIX can see 10..or even 9s, before this giant wave from Oct' finally complete.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw minor chop across the day, with the sp +2pts @ 1878. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook remains moderately bullish, and the sp'1900 threshold looks due to be broken next week.



...and another week comes to a close.

Suffice to say, a rather quiet end to the week, which is probably a good thing.

I hold long, via CHK, DO, SDRL, and STX, will be seeking to drop all of them in the low sp'1900s.

Have a good weekend everyone.

*the weekend post will be on the US monthly indexes

3pm update - churn into the weekend

US equities are holding moderate gains, and the sp' looks set for an important weekly close in the 1870s, keeping the bullish up trend intact. Metals are seeing a touch of weakness, Gold -$2, with net weekly declines for both Gold and Silver.


Summary has been a bit of a battle this week....I'll be glad for the weekend :)

*I will hold long across the weekend, via CHK, DO, SDRL, and STX.

SDRL, 60min

...probably floored..finally, but I was overly early again. I annoy myself more than this market ever could.

3.08pm. Hourly MACD set to go + cycle this than churn..we could even see a close in the 1880s..which would be a bonus for the bull maniacs.

3.15pm.. something to look at...daily MACD cycles for the R2K/Nasdaq..they look floored..and are offering a good 2-3 weeks of upside..and that will get us to sp'1920s by late May/early June.

As much as it sounds bizarre coming from me..I'm glad I'm long, I think I'm on the right side of this least for a while.

3.23pm.. it is...there is viable upside to the 1890s early Monday....the fact there is sig' QE of around $3bn should spook those holding short across the weekend.

Only issue seems to be...a VIX weekly close in the 13s...or 12s. 

3.42pm.. another set of short-stops hit...and we're sp'1877...and rising.

For the equity bears out there..this is no doubt starting to really get annoying.

2pm update - afternoon chop

US equities are battling to hold slight gains, but we do have a daily reversal for the R2K/Nasdaq..which is an especially bullish aspect for next week. Equity bulls should be seeking a cose in the sp'1870s, which will just about keep the weekly cycle to outright bullish.



A closing green pretty important in my view, and for that, we need 1871 or higher.

Notable weakness: SDRL, -3.2% @ $34.80s  (I'm long from $35.10s this morning). A touch annoying, but I'd rather hold SDRL than RIG.

SDRL, 60min

It should at least level out by $34.60 or so...or it could be a problem.

CHK +1.7%..and I might drop that in the closing hour..esp' if >$30.

Overall though, equity bears just look powerless, and market looks poised to push higher next week.

2.35pm.. minor chop..and market is so far able to hold the sp'1870s. battling to put in a floor in the $34.50s - just above the 50 day MA..along with rising support.

1pm update - R2K and Nasdaq pushing hard

Despite morning weakness, the broader market is holding together, and we now have the R2K and Nasdaq making yet another play to break out to the upside. There is a very viable 4-5% of upside across the next 2-3 weeks. Metals are starting to the broader market rallies, Gold -$1

R2K, daily

Nasdaq, daily


Suffice to say..equity bears remain powerless, but..that has been the case for some...........years.

time for a walk..

12pm update - battling it out

US equities are still seeing weak minor chop, but the hourly cycles are looking pretty much floored. The notable weakness remains within the R2K/Nasdaq, but those two laggards are viably floored on the bigger daily charts.



There is not much to add, on what is a relatively quiet end to the week. I will note, next week doesn't look to offer much.

VIX update from Mr T



*notable reversal in STX, a full $1 above the earlier low of $48.46, but still, that stock is -10% since earnings, and it remains a major loser on my part. Urghh!

time for tea

12.41pm... well, I guess a whole truck load of bears just made a run for it.. and all indexes are now positive.

yours....trying to be patient.

11am update - morning chop

US equities continue to see minor weak chop, with the battered R2K/Nasdaq both trying to put in daily reversals. Equity bulls need to hold the Nasdaq Comp' above the giant 4000 level, with the rising 200 day MA just below at 3989.

Nasdaq Comp'


Price structure to me just looks like a very large and complex pull back.

At some point we still look set to battle least to the 50 day Ma, and probably into the 4200s.

RIG is offering a spike floor at an old support level... where the 50 day MA was marginally broken.

*as it is, I'm more comfortable in SDRL, than RIG..considering yesterdays daily candle.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but once again, the equity bears are not showing any signifcant power. VIX is higher, but only by 4%..and that could easily be the high of the day. Equity bulls should battle for a weekly close in the sp'1880s, which remains well within reach.



*after some thought...I decided to set aside RIG... and instead go LONG SDRL. Seadrill has better underlying strength than RIG, and it is yet to post earnings (May 30).

If SDRL sees a strong reversal and turns green later today, I will probably exit for the weekend.

10.11am.. Reversal candle on the R2K...

Considering the lack of upside kick in the VIX (yet again)....has the R2K finally least for a few weeks?

10.33am... minor chop..but it does look like the bears are done for today. VIX appears maxed at 14.03..which is just so weak.

Notable strength: CHK, +1.8%...and I'd be looking to exit that in the low $30s later today..if it gets there.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1871. Metals are higher, Gold +$4. Equity bulls should be battling for a weekly close in the sp'1880s, although that could be difficult if some end week selling starts to spiral things.



Market has some soft rising support around 1865, with the recent low of 1859.

I would only get marginally bearish, on a weekly close <1860, which is of course, not that far down.

Update from Mr C.

Oscar is selling the rallies, and certainly is spooked by the weakness in the R2K.

I'm still open to picking up RIG again this morning, but only in the $41.50/30 zone. Anything below would suggest bigger problems than just a post earnings reversal. On the flip side, if it can open in the 42s, I have no interest in chasing it higher.

As it is, I still have to drop CHK and DO anyway, although that seems somewhat unlikely today, unless we get a close in the 1890s.

Its almost the weekend :)

9.45am... Eyes on SDRL....rather than RIG....

Minor index weakness...I can't take it seriously.

9.48am.. LONG SDRL, from 35.07     indexes look floored...

Just another day

It was just another day in market land, with morning equity gains, but then some afternoon declines. Once again, there was particular weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq, but with the Transports breaking a new historic high, it remains a very mixed picture.

Trans, weekly

R2K, weekly


So...a new historic high for the Trans, but the morning gains in the R2K were completely reversed, and the daily net decline of -1.0%, is currently making for a rather significant weekly fall of -2.8%.

What about this disparity? I still think it is more about a simple rotation from the over-hyped stocks into the more conservative ones. Clearly though, the degree of weakness in the R2K is something we've not seen since late 2012.

Looking ahead

The only notable aspect tomorrow is wholesale trade data, but really, I don't think many will have any particular interest in that.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2bn or so..and bears should be mindful of QE next Monday of around $3bn.

Permabear battling away

Today sure was mixed for yours truly. I bailed on RIG and SDRL at the open (very good gains), but decided to hold CHK, DO, and STX. On reflection, I probably should have just sold everything, yet all of those trio are still offering much higher levels in the near term.


An opening exit, stopped out at $44.70...not too bad eh? Those opening black-fail candles are usually to be taken very seriously!

As for tomorrow, I'd actually consider picking up a small size block in RIG, so long as it holds the 50 day MA in the $41.30s. The recent earnings were fine, and it might make for a good 1-2 day trade.

As things are, despite the ongoing weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq, I simply can't be picking up any index shorts...yet. Maybe in a few weeks.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw gains in the morning, but there was some distinct weakness across the afternoon, sp -2pts @ 1875. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook remains moderately bullish into mid/late May.





The R2K sure looks weak, but has had a hyper run since the Oct'2011 low.

I continue to believe we are merely seeing a case where the bigger institutions are switching from high beta/tech, into more conservative stocks..especially those within the Dow.

For the moment..we are merely seeing the broader market largely just churn sideways..very close to the historic highs. Again, it is notable that today, the Transports - 'old leader', did break a new historic high.

Taking the market as a whole, I just can't get on the bearish train...yet.

a little more later...