Thursday, 20 November 2014

Closing Brief

US equities settled with moderate gains for all the main indexes, sp +4pts @ 2052. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook continues to offer a minor 2-3% retrace... at least sometime within the next 0-5 years.



Seriously though.. another pretty tedious day in market land.

A slightly promising open.. but a cruel tease to the bears.. a marginal break of the daily 10MA of sp'2041... but flooring at 2040, and recovering into the afternoon.

Make your own guesses as to how much the BoJ bought today in the US market.

a daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - tedious Thursday

US equities are still holding moderate gains, and with price action as it is.. there is no realistic hope of a close under the daily 10MA of sp'2041. Metals are building gains, Gold +$11, which is giving the miners a kick.. the ETF of GDX +3.1%.



Very tiresome... and the morning low of sp'2040 now looks a fair way lower.. and clearly out of range for today.

VIX showing zero sign of market concern, -1.5% @ 13.75... ahead of tomorrow's main market opex.

INTC building gains, +4.1%, the highest level since Nov'2000. The tech bubble high for Intel was $56.25.. in Aug'2000.

3.21pm.. sp'2049... so.. no new highs today... but that is small consolation for the lack of downside follow through.

back at the close.......

2pm update - gains for the two leaders

US equity indexes are still holding moderate gains, with notable strength in the two leaders - Trans/R2K, of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. However, both remain within short term moderately weak downward trends. VIX remains... very subdued, -1% @ 13.80.

R2K, daily



Little to add.

Today's gains.. if they hold are just another sign of the underlying strength, or maybe its just a case of 'holding the market up into opex'?

Regardless... until a daily close <2040.. this is really tiresome.

Notable strength, INTC +3.1% @ $35.40s, finally breaking the high from early September.

12pm update - daily cycles still warning of minor weakness

Whilst equity indexes have turned marginally positive, the daily cycles remain slightly in favour of the bears. However, the VIX is still failing to display any upside kick/power. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$6. Energy prices are mixed, Nat 'gas -0.7%..  Oil +0.8%



Unquestionably... a frustrating morning.

A marginal break of the daily 10MA... but unable to break under 2040.

This is why even though I'm STILL seeking a retrace... it has to be asked... with price action like this.. how are we going to go much below 1980/50?

Notable strength: BABA +2.4%. having swung from 107 to 112... although remains in a short term down trend.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for tea... back at 2pm.

11am update - messy morning

With much of the morning econ-data coming in better than expected, the algo bots have used it as an excuse to flip the market marginally positive. New highs are not far away, but still seem unlikely. VIX remains... twitchy.




*frankly, I'm not sure what to make of the earlier VIX spike of 15.74. Rogue print.. or was someone buying a truck load of VIX calls?

Considering the earlier marginal break of the daily 10MA of sp'2041.. I'm still inclined for 'moderate weakness' into the weekend.

On any basis though, equity bears should be clawing for a daily close <2040.

Notable strength in energy stocks... CHK +3%

11.30am.. So.. err... how much are the BoJ buying this morning in the US market?

sp'2053.. with Dow 17700.... urghh

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with a marginal break of the daily 10MA of sp'2041. VIX is on the rise, but so far.. failing to show any real kick.. +4% in the mid 14s. Metals are holding rather strong gains, Gold +$10... which is naturally helping the miners.


GLD, daily


*awaiting trio of econ-data at 10am.

If you assume sp'2056 was a short term high, first target is 2000... and then the 50dma.. which for the next few weeks will be in the 1980s...

Hence.. my primary zone is a slightly revised 2000/1980.

As noted last evening... I just can't see much of a sig' drop before year end. 

10.01am... Whats up with the VIX ?

Is the CBOE broken or something?

Phil Fed 40.8 ... vs 18 expected.... BIZARRELY high.... misprint?

time to shop... back soon!

10.30am... Indexes back to largely flat.... tedious.. urghh.

BABA.. $10bn bond sale.... stock flips +1.8%... back to $110...

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2041. Precious metals are bouncing, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is a touch higher, +0.2%. Important day for the equity bears... first break target is the daily 10MA of sp'2039/40

sp'daily3 - fib levels


Lot of data this morning to be mindful of....

notable early movers...

BABA -0.8% @ $108.... headed for $100
GDX +1.6%... due to the Gold bounce

Update from Mr Permabull...

Have a good Thursday!

9.01am.. sp -10pts... we're set to FINALLY break the daily 10MA at the open... so... bears have a very likely important technical break to start the day.

First soft target is sp'2000... but even I'd note.. that seems highly unlikely until early next week.

Daily Wrap

The bigger daily equity/VIX cycles are suggestive of a short term top of sp'2056, with some degree of moderate retrace... probably sub'2000.. into early December. Broader trend remains powerfully higher though... to the sp'2100s.. and beyond.




So... a daily net decline for most indexes, but still... nothing significant.. not least reflected in the VIX which remains very subdued.

Best guess... a retrace to the sp'1980/50 zone.... which might equate to VIX 18/20 by first week of December.

Looking ahead

There is actually a great deal of data in the early morning... 

CPI, Weekly jobless claims, PMI manu', Phil' fed, existing home sales, leading indi'

*Two fed officials are on the loose, not least the Dudley... Mr Market will be listening

A retrace to sp'1910?

A regular reader (hello JC) reminded me of the 1910 level, which would be a 61% fib retrace. That is a mere 0.5% above the CRITICAL 1900 threshold. All those touting a giant expanding wedge should be desperate for a break <1900 before year end... which if it occurred would re-open up the original downside target.. somewhere in the 1750/1650 area.

sp'daily3 - fib levels

The problem is.. how are we going to break 7% lower to 1910, never mind actually breaking and holding under 1900? I just can't see it, not least with the BoJ putting a bid under (quite literally) the entire world equity market.

As ever... one day at a time... but for now... I can't see a retrace of much significance.

yours...... depressingly... 'broadly bullish' into late 2015/early 2016.

Goodnight from London