Thursday 15 January 2015

Pre-Market Brief - Currency Chaos

Good morning. World capital markets are in something of a state of turmoil.. with the Swiss having dropped their peg to the Euro. Overnight futures swung from +15pts to -25pts, but now back to sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2007.. but things are VERY unstable now.


sp'60min

Summary

Frankly... 'OMG'.... things really have got wild overnight.

First... see HERE for a BBC story on the Swiss currency change. The price action has been absolutely wild.
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Key issues...

Swiss bank have decided to abandon the Euro peg...  that has stood since Sept'2011.
Perhaps most disturbing... they have dropped the interest rate from -0.25% to -0.75%

World equities all sharply collapsed on the news.... but most have rebounded.
Precious metals gaining huge on the turmoil, Gold +$23
The USD itself is somewhat lower on the news, -0.6% @ 91.60

Yet... there are far bigger implications to all this... and so many questions. Why did the Swiss do this? Why now... why not yesterday? What do they believe is coming?

Are the Swiss re-positioning ahead of the ECB next Thursday, when QE t-bond buying is set to be announced?
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Update from Oscar... although somewhat irrelevant, since it was before the Swiss news....



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Without question, we have one wild day ahead... very hard to have much idea how we'll close today.

A drop to sp'1965 remains viable.... but as things are now... clearly... there are 'system' changes underway.

*don't forget....econ-data due.. along with a Lagarde interview this lunchtime.

Good wishes for Thursday trading.
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8.19am.. Notable weakness, BBRY -15% @ $10.60s... having denied the bid talk.

sp +1pt at 2012... ahead of the econ-data.... price action remains VERY unstable.


8.32am... PPI comes in -0.3%.... weak.

Equities claw higher, sp +3pts ... 2014.  Gold holding gains of $25  Oil +3.1%


8.46am.. despite lousy jobs data... futures swinging... sp +12pts... 2023.

 8.51am. WTIC Oil... soaring +5.0%... biggest gain in a very long while... $51s


9.09am... Oil loses almost half the gains, +2.7%...

sp +6pts... 2017.... overall price action remains highly unstable.... a wild day ahead....