Thursday 19 February 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately weak, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2095. Equity bears should be seeking a break of 2092, which will open up 2075/70 by the Friday close. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$10. Oil is sharply lower, -3.0% in the $50s, ahead of the key EIA report.


sp'60min



WTIC, daily


Summary

*we have jobs data soon, along with Phil'fed and leading indicators... however, far more interesting will be the EIA report at 11am (yes, its normally 10.30am).

If Oil inventories come in any higher than 6/7 million barrels, it'll be a real problem for the oil bulls. Any surplus >10 million, and Oil is going to lose the $50 threshold... and be in real danger of breaking the recent key low of $43.
--


As for equities.. we're certainly due a down cycle. To me, a test of the 50dma @ 2045 would be the natural target.. although I realise some will be dismissive of that.

This morning, Germany has rejected a 6mth extension to Greece... and Merkel has been talking a lot about solidarity. Hmm... a deal right now looks to be pushed out to end month... this remains a case of who will concede first.

--
Hopefully the price action today will be more dynamic than the past two days.

Have a good Thursday.

-
9.14am  sp-7pts...  2092..... on the edge of a straight break....    Oil -4.5%..... starting to look real ugly