Tuesday 3 March 2015

10am update - moderate weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but until sp' <2100, along with VIX 14s, it all counts for nothing.  Gold is in bounce mode, +$8. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.4%.


sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

*arguable break of trend on the VIX... suggestive sp' will lose 2100 today.
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As ever... it usually remains a case of morning weakness... and then latter day algo-bot melt.

Break levels remain... sp'2100, with VIX 14s.

If those are broken, then further weakness to the 2080s...  2065 'best case'. From there.... up into the sp'2200s.

Here is a thought.....

sp'2200s... even a retrace to the giant 2k threshold will require a 10% drop of 200pts... which will be damn tough.
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Notable weakness, Ford (F), -2.4%.. after vehicle sales data.
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10.27am... it remains pretty lame how its difficult to even hold an early decline of just -0.5%.

The one thing the bears do have... daily MACD cycle is due to see a bearish cross today/tomorrow for most indexes.

So.. if break <2100.. then its a case of flooring in the 2080s... or somewhere close to 2065.

Right now... VIX max' case are the 18s, but that is declining each day.
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