Thursday 19 March 2015

11am update - retrace almost complete

US equities remain moderately lower, with a high probability of a market floor around sp'2086/84 within the immediate term. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5. Oil remains in collapse mode -4.3%. VIX remains relatively subdued in the 14s.


sp'15min


Summary

*as ever... I adjust/refine.. as necessary all targets... not least as price action/structure suggest
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Best guess.. a simple ABC retrace... which in theory.. should level around the 50% retrace of 2084.

A weekly close in the sp'2100s now looks increasingly probable.
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Notable weakness: energy stocks, CHK -4%, BTU -1.5%, RIG -5.0%
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11.01am... Viable double floor on the 5min cycle.... that could be it.... even 2085 now looks difficult.


In any case...  after yesterdays gains, door is wide open into the 2120/30s.


11.23am... Market appears to have put in a double floor of sp'2089/90.... at the 38% retrace.

Now its merely a case of how high we climb..... it is notable that the R2K is already positive.


11.33am.. Hmm.. fractional new low... so.. the 50% fib retrace (sp'2084) is viable (again)...

Notable weakness: AAPL, --0.5% in the $127s.... but looks headed for 130s...